With Republicans taking control of the White House and the U.S. Senate, the battle over who controls the House has only intensified post-Election Day — and that runs right through some key, still-close races in Orange County.
That includes California’s 47th congressional district, an open seat where the latest tally of votes by the county’s registrar at 5 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 6 showed former Assemblymember Scott Baugh, a Republican, leading state Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine.
Min had jumped to an early lead after initial vote tallies were released Tuesday, but by early morning Wednesday, Baugh had jumped out ahead – and he maintained a small edge Wednesday night. The registrar will release the next tally of votes at 5 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 7. Continue to check the Register’s website, ocregister.com, for more updates.
Both candidates in the CA-47 race – just like contenders in other close congressional races this week – stressed the importance of patience; there are still many more votes to be counted, they said.
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But this latest vote tally should paint a better picture of how the race may shake out for the seat currently held by Rep. Katie Porter, said Matthew Beckmann, who teaches political science and studies Washington politics at UC Irvine. Wednesday’s vote count is another large batch of ballots whereas later tallies will include ballots trickling in through the mail, he said.
As of Wednesday evening, the registrar of voters estimated it had more than 360,000 ballots left to process, county-wide.
National Democrats are counting on Min, who shares Porter’s progressive values and a background in law but lacks her name recognition or star power, to retain the seat. On the other hand, Republicans are optimistic that Baugh can flip the seat, particularly since he came close to winning it in 2022 despite being significantly outspent.
A spokesperson for Baugh said the team is “hunkered down at the registrar of voters” as ballots are still being cured. The campaign will wait until the dust has cleared a bit more before making an official statement.
Min’s campaign sent out a fundraising email Wednesday afternoon, asking supporters to chip in to its legal fund to ensure every vote is counted.
“We appreciate your patience and continued support as we fight until the very end,” the email said. “We believe that when every vote is counted, we’ll have what it takes to win.”
Beckmann expects Min will eke out a victory to replace outgoing Porter, especially given that the later ballots have generally tended to skew more blue.
But it is a district where Republicans held a tiny voter registration advantage going into Election Day, and the question – which most likely can’t be fully answered until more ballots are counted – is what sort of impact the red wave seen sweeping the country has made on the Orange County district.
Other OC House races
Meanwhile, races in two solidly blue Orange County congressional districts have already been called: Rep. Linda Sánchez in California’s 38th and Rep. Lou Correa in the 46th won reelection. Both took early leads over their Republican challengers Tuesday evening, and the races were ultimately called by The Associated Press.
But Reps. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, and Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, are still locked in close contests.
In California’s 40th district, the latest returns as of Wednesday evening from the secretary of state showed Kim holding onto a solid lead over Democratic challenger Joe Kerr.
Kim had jumped ahead Tuesday with the lead and maintained it throughout the night.
Going into Election Day, CA-40, which spans western San Bernardino and Riverside counties and eastern Orange County, was marked as one of several competitive House races in Southern California. Still, Republicans held the voter registration advantage there.
When Kim won her election to Congress in 2020, she unseated a Democratic incumbent to do so. And it was a marked victory for her: She was just one of 13 people elected to the House in districts that voted for a president and a representative from different political parties.
“My record proves my commitment to delivering results, and I am ready to keep fighting for my constituents to make life affordable, keep our communities safe and get us back on the right track,” Kim said in a statement.
A second-generation firefighter, Kerr served as a captain with the Orange County Fire Authority for 34 years. He’s a labor leader who has received several awards and recognitions for his work responding to crises.
A spokesperson for Kerr’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In California’s 49th congressional district, the latest returns from the secretary of state showed Levin holding onto a slight lead over Republican challenger Matt Gunderson.
Levin had ended Tuesday night with a lead over Gunderson. As of 5 p.m. Wednesday evening, per the secretary of state’s tally, the incumbent held onto that narrow edge.
Both candidates expressed confidence ahead of Wednesday’s vote tally.
“We are encouraged by the results so far and are confident that we will prevail when all the ballots are counted,” Levin said in a statement Tuesday night.
“Mike Levin was supposed to be a shoo-in for reelection, but instead required Nancy Pelosi’s assistance with millions of dollars in advertising to try and save him,” Gunderson said Wednesday afternoon. “Despite the Democrats’ millions in negative advertising, our message of fiscal responsibility, secure borders and common sense has resonated with the voters of San Diego and Orange counties.”
The district spans both Orange and San Diego counties, and Democrats held a voter registration advantage going into Election Day.
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