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Fryer on Football: Previews and predictions for Friday’s top CIF-SS semifinals

Teams are listed by their ranking in the Orange County Top 25.

CIF-SS FOOTBALL SEMIFINALS

NO. 1 MATER DEI (10-0) VS. CENTENNIAL (9-2)

Where, when: Centennial High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Division 1 semifinals

Analysis: Mater Dei beat Centennial of Corona 42-25 in the season opener for both back teams on Aug. 22 at Santa Ana Stadium. Centennial senior quarterback Husan Longstreet did not play in that game. Longstreet, who over the weekend flipped his college commitment from Texas A&M to USC, last week completed 17 of 23 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown in the Huskies’ 25-20 road win over Mission Viejo in the quarterfinals. Malachi Roby, a junior, rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Last week Mater Dei beat Sierra Canyon 33-13 as running back Jordon Davison (Oregon commit) rushed for 111 yards on only seven carries that included a 77-yard touchdown run. Monarchs tight end Mark Bowman had five receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns. (Ttight end is the most under-utilized position in high school football.) Senior quarterback Dash Beierly threw two touchdown passes and an interception, his only one of the season from 195 passes. Longstreet gives Centennial a better chance to beat Mater Dei than the Huskies had back on that warm August night. But the Monarchs look unbeatable.

Winner: Mater Dei

NO. 3 ORANGE LUTHERAN (8-3) VS. ST. JOHN BOSCO (10-1)

Where, when: St. John Bosco High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Division 1 semifinals

Analysis: Orange Lutheran lost to St. John Bosco 28-24 in a Trinity League game at St. John Bosco on Oct. 4. It was a wild game. There were five lead changes, and for the first time in his 22 years as a head coach Jason Negro of St. John Bosco started a freshman at quarterback. Koa Malau’ulu in the second half completed 20 of 22 passes, including four touchdowns, to lead the Braves to victory. Bosco ran the ball only eight times, for 28 yards, that night. Orange Lutheran senior quarterback TJ Lateef, who committed to Nebraska, threw for 207 yards and rushed for 78 yards, and senior running back Steve Chavez, a San Jose State commit, rushed for 131 yards and a touchdown. Chavez has surpassed 100 yards rushing in five of his eight games, including 133 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-20 win over JSerra last week in the quarterfinals. St. John Bosco last week beat Santa Margarita 31-29. St. John Bosco is a young team, with non-seniors at many positions. Still, the Braves have lost only to Mater Dei in what might be the best season of coaching from Negro and his staff. Orange Lutheran has seniors at many positions. That will be a difference in this game.

Winner: Orange Lutheran

NO. 10 YORBA LINDA (11-1) VS. NEWBURY PARK (12-0)

Where, when: Newbury Park High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Division 2 semifinals

Analysis: Yorba Linda has won five in a row since a Bravo League loss to San Juan Hills. The Mustangs in the first round beat Chaparral of Temecula 42-32 and in the quarterfinals Serra 24-20. They rushed for 202 yards against Serra, led by freshman Isaiah Trujillo’s 85 yards on seven carries. Junior defensive end Blake Thorp had three sacks to give him 11.5 sacks this season. Newbury Park beat San Jacinto 27-0 in the first round and San Clemente 24-14 in the quarterfinals. Newbury Park junior quarterback Brady Smigiel, son of Panthers head coach Joe Smigiel, threw for 218 yards and two touchdowns in the win over San Clemente. Yorba Linda and Newbury Park have a common opponent, San Jacinto. Yorba Linda lost to San Jacinto 19-16, a loss that became a forfeit win for the Mustangs. Newbury Park beat San Jacinto 27-0 in these playoffs. So …

Winner: Newbury Park

NO. 11 EDISON (8-4) VS. VISTA MURRIETA (8-4)

Where, when: Vista Murrieta High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Division 3 semifinals

Analysis: Edison lost to Mission Viejo and San Clemente in Alpha League games before getting playoff wins over North Torrance 24-0 and Bonita 24-0. The latter win might have come with a heavy price – senior running back Julius Gillick injured a knee late in first half and did not play in the second half. Gillick, who is Edison’s career rushing leader, had 78 rushing yards and a touchdown before exiting. Gillick has been able to practice this week. Sophomore Sam Edmisten filled in last week and rushed for 90 yards on 17 carries. A late-season injury to Chargers quarterback Savelio Niumata made sophomore Sam Thomson their starting quarterback. Thomson has played well, including completing 6 of 8 passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns against Bonita. Vista Murrieta finished fourth in the six-team Big West Upper League, a strong league that has two other semifinalists, Centennial and Murrieta Valley, in it. Vista Murrieta junior quarterback Bryson Beaver has passed for 3,001 yards and 32 touchdowns. Edison’s defense, led by junior linebackers Matt Lopez and Jeremiah Ross, will be up to the challenge.

Winner: Edison

PALOS VERDES (7-5) VS. NO. 21 FOOTHILL (7-5)

Where, when: Tustin High, Friday, 7 p.m.

Division 5 semifinals

Analysis: One day, Doug Case will retire from coaching football. That day has not arrived, although Case a few months ago announced his intentions to end the coaching career at the conclusion of this season. The Knights finished fourth in the six-team Epsilon League, qualified for the playoffs as an at-large team and won a couple of close playoff games, 20-28 over Moorpark in the first round and 38-35 over Lakewood in the quarterfinals. Foothill senior quarterback Gino Marchetti passed for 229 yards and three touchdowns and Nathan Gouvion rushed for 193 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Lakewood. Palos Verdes finished second to Inglewood in the Bay League. In the playoffs the Sea Kings, coached by former La Quinta and Pacifica coach Guy Gardner, beat Brea Olinda 16-10 in the first round and Mayfair of Lakewood 27-13 in the quarterfinals. This “Win It For Coach Case” campaign has seen the Knights thrive in close games in these playoffs. The Foothill offense might be at its best the past two weeks. That, and and playing for a cause, gets the Knights another close win.

Winner: Foothill

Fryer on Football last week: 3-2

Season to date: 48-19

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