On Tuesday Orange County voters flipped back to their solid GOP past. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 51% to 42%. In 2020 it was Joe Biden 54% to Trump’s 44%. This time, the OC Registrar of Voters’ preliminary tally puts it Trump 50% to Kamala Harris’ 48%. That contrasted with her statewide 57% to Trump’s 40%.
Once again, as President Ronald Reagan said in 1988, “Orange County is where the good Republicans go before they die.”
In preliminary counts that could be challenged in close races, Trump’s coattails extended to local elephants. For the two most contested races, in the 45th District Rep. Michelle Steel won with 53% to 47% over Democrat Derek Tran. And in the 47th District former Republican Assembly Minority Leader Scott Baugh squeaked by Democratic state Sen. Dave Min, 50.58% to 49.42%. That was for the seat to be vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who lost a bid for the U.S. Senate.
More predictably, in the 40th District Republican Rep. Young Kim was re-elected, 57% to 43%. And in the 46th District, Democratic Rep. Lou Correa was re-elected, 60% to Republican David Pan’s 40%.
In districts OC shared with other counties, in the 38th District Rep. Linda Sanchez nearly lost in OC, getting 50.5% to Republican Eric Ching’s 49.5%. But when L.A. County votes were added, she easily won, 57% to 43%.
Likewise, for the 49th District, in OC Republican Matt Gunderson topped Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, 57% to 43%. But when San Diego County voters are thrown in, the overall total gives it to Levin, 50.9% to 49.1%.
In races for the Legislature, in the Assembly all but one incumbent won easily. The exception was in the 64th District, with Democratic Assemblymember Blanca Pacheco narrowly besting Republican challenger Raul Ortiz, 50.26% to 49.74%.
For the state Senate, in the 37th District former Assemblymember Steve Choi won a surprise victory over Sen. Josh Newman, 52% to 48%. After providing the decisive yea for the $5 billion yearly gas tax in 2017, voters recalled Newman in 2018 in the 29th District. He came back with a victory in 2020, narrowly defeating Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang, 51% to 49%.
Redistricting forced him to run this year in the new 37th District, which is to the south and more conservative than the old 29th. Choi also is better known in the 37th. And some voters remembered Newman’s tax-increase vote.
In the only supervisorial race, for the 1st District Republican state Sen. Janet Nguyen easily defeated Democrat Frances Marquez, 63% to 37%. Nguyen previously served as supervisor in this district from 2007-14, albeit with different boundaries. She replaces Andrew Do, who resigned last month after pleading guilty in a funding scandal.
On local measures, Santa Ana’s rent control Measure CC passed with 55%. It will discourage housing construction and so worsen the housing and homelessness crises. At least the statewide Proposition 33, making it easier to pass local rent control, was rejected by 62%.
Measure FF, a massive pay increase for Santa Ana’s dysfunctional councilmembers, was rejected by 66%. While Measure DD, allowing noncitizens to vote, lost by 62%.
On school ballot measures, all passed with except Measure G for Rancho Santiago Community College, at 51% no. Gouging homeowners will be Brea Olinda’s Measure H, Santa Ana Unified’s Measure I, Tustin Unified’s Measure J, Anaheim Union High’s Measure K, Fullerton Joint Union High’s Measure L, Buena Park’s Measure M, Fullerton’s Measure N, La Habra’s Measure O and Lowell Joint’s Measure P.
For sales tax measures, Buena Park’s Measure R 1¢ boost got 74%; La Habra’s Measure V half-cent increase got 67%; and Seal Beach’s Measure GG half-cent rise got 69%. But Orange’s half-cent Measure Z lost, 51.59% to 48.41%. La Habra denizens will be hit with a double-tax whammy.
That’s nine new bonds paid for by property tax increases and three sales tax increases that will increase housing costs or purchases and make the homeless crisis worse. OC voters might be favoring Republican candidates, but on taxes they’re voting like tax-giddy Democrats.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board and blogs at johnseiler.substack.com
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