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Election 2024: What early returns show in Orange County’s congressional races

In one of the most closely watched House races this election cycle, initial election results showed Rep. Michelle Steel and attorney Derek Tran locked in a tight battle for California’s 45th congressional race.

Polls closed Tuesday night at 8 p.m., and California’s secretary of state released initial vote tallies shortly thereafter. Early results had Tran just ahead of Steel in the race.

In the campaign for CA-45, where Democrats held a voter registration advantage going into Election Day, Steel is vying for a third term in what has become an incredibly volatile race, particularly in recent weeks. Both camps have levied accusations of racism against the other — Steel was one of the first Korean American women elected to Congress; Tran is hoping to be the first Vietnamese American to represent a district home to Little Saigon — and red-baiting, a political tactic that involves accusing individuals or groups of having communist sympathies and insinuating that they are “un-American.”

Another sign of how close the race was: Heavy hitters from both parties — like Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and former Democratic President Bill Clinton — barnstormed Southern California ahead of Election Day for their respective candidates.

The 45th congressional district is just one of several Southern California districts pegged by the national parties as being crucial to determine who controls the House next year.

Also on that watch list are California’s open 47th congressional district, where former Assemblymember Scott Baugh and state Sen. Dave Min are locked in a close battle, and the 49th, which features Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, and businessman Matt Gunderson, a Republican, in the district that spans Orange and San Diego counties.

Here’s a look at how Orange County’s congressional races are shaping up, based on early, initial vote tallies.

38th congressional district

In the 2022 rematch between Rep. Linda Sánchez and Eric Ching, early returns suggest the incumbent is on pace to win the race for California’s 38th congressional district.

Sánchez was first elected to Congress in 2002. She’s a former labor attorney who was born in Orange; her parents were immigrants from Mexico. She’s the first Latina to serve on the House Ways and Means Committee, according to her House biography, and she’s the first woman to helm the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, which works to increase Latino representation in Congress.

First elected to the Walnut City Council in 2012, Ching has served multiple stints as the city’s mayor. His background is in business and management, specifically in telecommunications, and holds multiple certificates in technology fields, according to his city bio.

CA-38 includes portions of Los Angeles and Orange counties, including La Habra. Headed into Election Day, Democrats held a considerable voter registration advantage in this district.

40th congressional district

Early election returns for the race for California’s 40th congressional district showed Rep. Young Kim with a slight lead over Joe Kerr, a Democrat.

Kim, a Republican from Anaheim Hills, unseated a Democratic incumbent in a tight race in 2020, flipping the seat red after it had gone blue in 2018. It was a marked victory for Kim: She’s in just one of 13 House seats across the country that voted for a president and a representative from different political parties.

A second-generation firefighter, Kerr served as a captain with the Orange County Fire Authority for 34 years. He’s a labor leader who has received several awards and recognitions for his work responding to crises.

CA-40, which spans western San Bernardino and Riverside counties and eastern Orange County, is one of several competitive House races in Southern California; albeit, Republicans held the voter registration advantage headed into Election Day.

46th congressional district

Early election returns Tuesday night showed Rep. Lou Correa, D-Santa Ana, with a strong lead over UC Irvine Professor David Pan in the race for California’s 46th congressional district.

Considered a relatively safe seat for Democrats, the 46th district sits in just Orange County and covers Anaheim, Fullerton and Santa Ana.

Correa is a longtime Orange County resident, growing up in Anaheim public schools. He’s served in Congress since 2017, where he’s a member of several committees and caucuses, including the Gun Violence Prevention Task Force; the Blue Dogs Coalition, which bills itself as a group of “fiscally responsible Democrats;” and the Vietnam Caucus, of which he’s a co-chair.

Born and raised in the Chicago area with parents who immigrated to the U.S. from Taiwan, Pan, a Republican, has taught German at UCI since 2006, according to his campaign website. While Pan has also worked at McKinsey & Company consulting firm in Los Angeles, he credits his time in academia for being the catalyst for his decision to run for California’s 46th congressional district.

49th congressional district

Early election returns for the race for California’s 49th congressional district show Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, with an early lead over Republican Matt Gunderson.

The district spans both Orange and San Diego counties, and Democrats held a voter registration advantage going into Election Day.

Levin, who was first elected to Congress in 2018, sits on the House Veterans Affairs Committee and has advocated for veterans and servicemembers in Congress. His district includes the U.S. Marine Corps base Camp Pendleton, located near Oceanside.

Gunderson’s congressional bid followed an unsuccessful attempt to win a state Senate seat in 2022. Originally from rural Wisconsin, Gunderson moved to California 25 years ago and operated three auto dealerships in Orange County.

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