Republicans in Orange County — and across the state — have been making inroads this election cycle with registering voters. And with less than a month to go until Election Day, Republicans have gained a slight voter registration advantage in a key House district.
Registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats by 64 people in California’s open 47th congressional district as of Thursday, Oct. 10. That means Democrats and Republicans account for 34.9% each of the district’s 453,788 registered voters; 23.9% are registered no party preference.
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In July, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 1,909 voters, according to data from the county registrar of voters.
The 47th congressional race between former Assemblymember Scott Baugh and state Sen. Dave Min is one of the most closely watched House races in Southern California, home to several tight contests that will help determine which political party is in charge of the speaker’s gavel next year. The seat is currently held by Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive darling who opted to run in California’s U.S. Senate race instead of for re-election; when she was first elected to Congress in 2018, she had flipped a longtime GOP-held seat blue.
Election forecasters believe Democrats still have the upper hand in the district. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, for example, considers CA-47 to “lean Democrat.”
Every registered California voter was mailed a ballot earlier this week; some voters may have already filled theirs out and returned them.
Still, Republicans are celebrating the new voter registration numbers.
“While Democrats made Californians’ wallets into ATMs for big government spending and their streets into a playground for criminals, Republicans offer a common-sense approach to secure borders, fight crime and halt inflation. The result is this surge in GOP support as fed-up Orange County families fight back,” said Ben Petersen, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which works to elect GOP candidates to the House.
Since the March primary, Republicans have increased their ranks of registered voters while Democrats have lost some — while still maintaining a sizeable advantage overall.
As of Oct. 10, 36.9% of the nearly 1.85 million registered voters in Orange County are Democrats, 34% are Republicans and 22.9% are no party preference.
In comparison, 37.4% of the nearly 1.82 million voters registered in Orange County on Feb. 20 were Democrats, 33.6% were Republicans and 22.8% no party preference.
That slight shift to the red has been seen across the state as well, according to recent research from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank. PPIC found that Democrats are losing younger voters, as well as Latino, Black and Asian American voters. Latino voters are switching to the GOP at higher rates, while Black voters have also moved to other minor parties, according to the PPIC data.
The shift to red, according to the study, is “largely driven by voters switching from other parties to Republican, and it marks a departure from the broader pattern of independent voters moving to Democratic registration.”
Orange County voters can return their ballots in the mail or by dropping them off at one of the myriad vote centers or ballot drop boxes that have already opened around the county. Voters can also visit a vote center to pick up a new ballot, if the mailed one is lost or stolen, and vote in person or receive other election-related assistance.
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