Old military maxim: “Amateurs talk tactics. Professionals talk logistics.” That never was more true than in the Iran War now unfolding.
The main question: Can Iran’s government, after its leadership was decapitated, still hold together long enough—firing missiles at Israel, U.S. forces and the Gulf states—to outlast U.S. and Israeli missile defenses?
Here’s a prime example of the cost differential. Each THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile costs $12.6 million, according to the 2025 Missile Defense Agency budget.
Lawrence Wilkerson is a retired U.S. Army colonel and served as chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, 2002-05. On the March 4 “Dialogue Works” podcast of Nima Alkhorshid, Wilkerson provided the math: Each missile costs five to six times as much as the Iranian drone it shoots down.
U.S. shortages are real and so are the geopolitical tradeoffs.
The South Korea newspaper Chosun Daily reported March 3, “U.S. Considers Relocating THAAD, Patriots to Middle East: South Korea-based systems may be moved amid prolonged U.S. military operation against Iran.”
As Wilkerson explained, the more we drain “South Korea in terms of its real capability to defend itself,” the more they’ll be inclined “to kick us off” their peninsula. The same goes for “the security relationship with Japan.”
The Ukraine War also is being affected. Headlined the March 5 Wall Street Journal, “Kyiv faces a shortfall of missile interceptors for its air defense, while surging oil prices are boosting Russia’s economy.” That also frees Moscow to give more aid to Tehran.
On Jan. 17, 2025, the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was inked in Moscow between President Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian, who so far has survived the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strikes. In addition to offensive missiles, technology and advice, both Russia and China have supplied air defense systems to Iran.
Defence Security Asia reported Feb. 24, four days before the war, “Deployment of China’s YLC-8B UHF anti-stealth radar in Iran could extend detection timelines to 700km, directly challenging F-35 Lightning II and B-2 Spirit operational assumptions across the Middle East.” But as you can see on your TV, that hasn’t worked too well.
No one knows how many thousands of missiles Iran has, most in bunkers, or how many are being destroyed before launch. Those missiles already have closed the Strait of Hormuz. And Iran keeps raining missiles down on targets throughout the Middle East: Israel, Turkey, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, the U.S. base in Qatar and the U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and in Kuwait. Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria also joined the fight against U.S. forces.
Then there’s intelligence. Reported Maritime Executive on March 3, “Chinese and Russian Satellite Feeds Aid Iranian War Effort.” As we learned in the Ukraine War, satellite images are so good now, the battlefield is bare. That gives Iran precise targeting intelligence.
The Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian ally, have not yet joined the fight, but possibly will. A year ago they shut down the Red Sea for shipping and forced a truce after Trump attacked with Operation Rough Rider. The Red Sea borders Africa. To that add current belligerents from North America, Europe and Asia, and we might end up with something resembling World War III.
Going forward, watch the logistics signs. If Iran keeps launching missiles, it has a regime that coheres enough to keep fighting, and the ammo to do so. If the missiles hit an increasing percentage of targets, then the U.S. and Israeli air defenses are faltering. Conversely, if Iran begins decomposing, its launch tempo will slow.
My guess is the Trump administration miscalculated the fragility of the Iranian regime. Tehran spent the eight months since the June 12-Day War planning how to survive. Both sides will maintain adequate arsenals to keep the current tempo going for months, making this a long, long war. As the bodies pile up.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board and is running a daily war report at: johnseiler.substack.com
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